Changing Focus

Overall: 71-54-2 / CBB 70-50-2 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 | Paid Picks: 37-18


With just a few college games left on the schedule, we turn our focus a bit to the association.

Suns -7 vs Nets

We have no reason to believe that this is a letdown spot for the Suns.  They are playing extremely well of late and have been tearing apart lesser teams during this road trip.

Points

Duke over 138

Yeeeeesh

That was nasty.

K St -4

Kentucky over 133

Surprises Abound

The number of turnovers by the Orange was shocking.  They didn't look focused or prepared.  Believe it or not, after all the energy that Kansas St. expended beating Xavier in double overtime, Butler has a shot to go back to Indy and play in the Final Four on their home turf.

Whether you are playing my picks or someone elses or your own, play the rest of this tourney with caution.  These games are obviously trickier than the regular season.  Just because the game is higher profile doesn't mean you have to bet on it or bet a lot on it.

Saint Mary's +5 vs Baylor

Another close finish with SMC having a really good shot at moving on.

Northern Iowa +1 vs Michigan St.

No Lucas.  No answer for UNI's size.  Ali for 3.  Sorry Carlos.

Tennessee vs Ohio St. -4

Turner is a beast.

Cuse

Cuse -6

K st -4

Kentucky over 146


-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:Research Blvd,Liberty Hill-Cedar Park,United States

The Other Ivy League Team

Overall: 68-48-2 / CBB 67-44-2 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 | Paid Picks: 34-16

A nice hit with Texas Tech was nice on such a short slate of games.

We have another limited card but found two gems.  One we will save for our paid subscribers.

Princeton +4 vs Saint Louis

SLU starts three guards and that's exactly how many they have left uninjured.   We like a potent Tigers team to keep this one within 4 with a good chance to win outright.

Red Raiders

Texas Tech +9

-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:Ranch Road 620 N,Austin,United States

NIT / CBI / CIT

Overall: 67-48-2 / CBB 66-44-2 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 |Paid Picks: 33-16

What a crazy tourney so far?  Congrats to anyone who moneylined Northern Iowa against Kansas.  Our moneyline bet on New Mexico St. was nearly good.

Here's what we like tonight.

Nevada +8

Rhode Island doesn't cover at home.  For the year they are 3-9 ATS at home.  Too many points for a talented Nevada team.

Virginia Tech -4.5

UConn doesn't wanna be here.  VTech rolls at home.

Morehead St. +2

We like Morehead to get it done on the road and advance.

Keep It Going In Round Deux

We go 2-0 - a nice recovery.

Cornell +5

Big Red looked so good in the first round against Temple. Temple's calling card is defense and Cornell tore them up. Wisconsin has not been playing well and barely got by Wofford.

Maryland -107 ML

The Terps are an offensive machine and Michigan St. does not look good right now.  Allen is questionable.  Michigan St. looks as vulnerable as Nova did.

Round Deux

Baylor -4

Washington -1.5

Tomorrow Is A New Day

Temple -3

New Mexico St +13

Texas A&M -155

Opening Round Fever

Our two public plays for Day 1 action -

Richmond -130 ML

UTEP +3

A Ton Of Value

Overall: 60-42-2 / CBB 59-38-2 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 |Paid Picks: 29-14

Our first subpar evening in quite some time going 1-2. Fairfield's come from behind overtime win gave us a boost but otherwise a lackluster evening for certain. Let's rally. There are a ton of games on tonight's card that we love. Post any questions you have in the comments section and if you haven't already, please become a follower of the blog, its free and helps grow our community.

Colorado St. vs Morehead St. -7

Nevada +8 vs Wichita St.

Weber St. +11 vs Cincy

Duquesne vs Princeton over 121

Parlay Portland Pilots and Loyola Marymount on the ML

64 vs 65

Overall: 59-40-2 / CBB 57-36-2 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 | Paid Picks: 28-14

Kansas and GTown gave us two close wins and Temple was a push the following day.  Here is what we have for tomorrow.

NC State vs South Florida -3

While NC State came very close to a date with Duke in the ACC final, we think that their performance has caused this line to be about half of what it should be.  The Bulls playing are at home, with more rest, and a more dynamic offense featuring Dominque Jones.

Ark Pine Bluff vs Winthrop -4

This is the NCAA 64 vs 65 play in game.  Personally, our opinion is that winners of conferences shouldn't be playing in this game.  Put two bubble teams like Illnois and Virginia Tech in game like this and the fan interest would skyrocket.  That aside, we like Winthrop here.  They aren't a great offensive team but they play such frenzied defense that Pine Bluff will struggle to break 60 points until very late in the game.

Fairfield +2 vs George Mason

GMU is without their leading scorer Cam Long.  Take the Stags tonight!

A quick note that just because its tourney time doesn't mean our number of public plays will grow.  Nothing is forced here just because its March.  However, our paid pick packages have been updated including an option to get all of our picks thru the end of April - this option includes SMS support via text message for any question you may have on any game.  We'll either give you lean or a no-play and reasons why over text.  A valuable option if you want to bet a game that we do not already have a play on and want a second opinion.

Give a Hoot

Not time for a full write up but its Temple -4 today guys.

Rock Chalk

Overall: 57-40-1 / CBB 55-36-1 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 | Paid Picks: 28-13

Maryland's flurry of turning GTech over and scoring cut a 16 point lead down to 2 but they ran out of gas and couldn't get over the hump.  Even with that loss, we hit strongly on Santa Barbara and sneaked in another winner with Western Michigan covering for us with a strong second half.

Kansas St. vs Kansas -6

The Wildcats are solid but they expended a lot of energy against Baylor.  Add that to the clear evidence that Kansas isn't just going through the motions for this tournament and clearly want to avenge their ousting from last year's bracket.  Collins and company want to punch all their tickets on the way to cutting down the nets and they won't go easy on a tired Wildcats team.

Georgetown +2.5 vs West Virgina

Georgetown is the better team in our estimation and if its close, we'll take the points.  Does WVU have an answer for Monroe?

Heating Up Again

Overall: 55-39-1 / CBB 53-35-1 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 | Paid Picks: 27-12

A nice 3-0 night last night, add a paid pick winner with La Tech and it was a nice 4-0 night for our subscribers.

Here's what we are on this afternoon and into the evening.

Western Michigan +4 vs Akron

Akron needed double overtime to dispatch Eastern Michigan.  Western Michigan is a scrappy second half bunch.  Expect an early Akron lead, but a WMU win in a close game.

Georgia Tech vs Maryland -4

In Gravis and company we trust.  GTech expended a lot of energy fending off a lesser foe last night and now they face one of the ten most talented teams in the country.

UC Davis vs UC Santa Barbara -4

A glaring talent mismatch.  We love UCSB in this spot.

Back In Full Force

Overall: 52-39-1 / CBB 50-35-1 / NBA 2-3 / NFL 0-1 | Paid Picks: 26-12

Well guys I am back in full force with more lengthy postings and the usual pics and such.  Our paid play yesterday was Morgan St. -10 continuing our subscribers hot streak over the last few days after a bit of a lull.  Our 3 public plays all hit in our favor.  On a personal note, the SFA -2.5 pick was my biggest wager of the year.

We move into more games where most of the losing teams are done for the season.  Will a team fight to stay alive in hopes of helping their cause with the selection committee or pack it in and roll over?  Has their season been a complete embarrassment?  Have the oddsmakers overvalued them based on regular season results?  Did they play yesterday?  Possibly expending great amounts of energy only to face a superior opponent that also happens to be rested?  These are questions to ask in the days ahead.  South Florida is a prime example.

North Carolina vs Georgia Tech -3.5

Here is a prime example of a wasted season for UNC versus a team with potential to make some noise with GTech.  We love the YellowJackets post players here versus a bad defensive group.  Vegas goofed with this line as it should be at least -6.5.  If we were setting the line it would be more in the range of -9.5.

San Jose St. vs New Mexico St. -4

Talent mismatch and bad line math from oddsmakers yet again.

S F Austin ML -130

I do want to mention something else regarding outlook and expectations.  What is the goal of any capper?  While we will all go on hot streaks, what is the long term expectation?  What is winning?  What can you expect if you buy picks from me or anyone else?

Winning mathmatically over the long haul is 55%.  At that number, you have an edge over the books of just over 2 percent.  This won't pay off your mortgage but it is technically winning.  Now, we all want to do better than 55% and as you can see based on our overall record, we are hitting right now at a far superior clip.  However, if you buy one package of 3 or 8 picks and get medicore results, is that a fair sampling of our paid picks?  Let's say you get 8 picks and we go 4-4 for you.  You've lost juice and you've had to pay for those picks.  Then you decide the picks aren't worth buying so you decide not to re-up with us.  This week our paid picks are hot and you've then missed out.

Point being is that if you believe in a handicapper, whoever that may be, give them at least 2 months before you give up on them.  Most cappers go thru streaks but if they are worth their salt, they will procure you some long term profit.

We are proud to stand by our record moving forward into March Madness and hope to have you on board for the wild, profitable ride it is sure to be.

Strong

SFA -2.5 (huge play for me)

Oklahoma St -7

Iowa St +9


-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:Ranch Road 620 N,Austin,United States

Bulldogs and Pirates

We are back in town and will be resuming full posting style soon but wanted to get a leg up on tomorrow card with a couple of selections.

Butler -7

Seton Hall -6

Gonzaga

Our pick on tonight's short card is Gonzaga -4.

Late Saturday Play

Saint Mary's -3


-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Noon pick

John Fields probably won't play for the Seahawks and Towson has been hot late.

Towson ML is our early play. Stay tuner thru out the day.


-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:McLeod St,Timmins,Canada

Thursday Action

La Tech +1

New Mexico St. +7

Western Michigan -8

Belmont ML


-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:McLeod St,Timmins,Canada

Wednesday Action

Temple over 111

Kansas st +10

-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:Maple St S,Timmins,Canada

What does it mean to be sharp?

Linemakers aren't trying to predict the outcome of a game. They are trying to limit liability. What is their preferred method? They come out with a number that splits the action 50/50. Obviously, the action is tilted to one side on most games. Does that mean that being "sharp" means going against the "public" or "square" play? Hardly. Being sharp means setting your own line before you see what the oddsmakers release and to the degree that their is disparity between your number and theirs, there is value.

We won't win them all and we don't really have favorite teams. Our goal is to find soft numbers and make them pay. Some lines are too accurate to play regardless of how "marquee" the game might be. Other obscure games, like tenn st vs SeMo present real value and because there isn't much action on obscure games, books know they won't get crushed - hence they are more prone to set soft lines. Ohio st and Penn st is a talent mismatch. But so is tenn st and semo. We study hard to find that value, then pound it, hopefully you do so along with us.

Sharp means value. Sharp doesn't mean fading the public to look sharp because often the public is right. Sharp doesn't mean falling in love with a team and betting them to cover on the road without doing any analysis. Sharp means knowing you aren't married to any play until you make it. Then the work is done and you are watching like an invested spectator. If you believe in our work and/or your own, you won't doubt the long term results in the face of a few bad beats.

Rock on. And good luck tonight.

-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:Maple St S,Timmins,Canada

Tuesday

Nova -3

Tulane +11


-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:Randall Dr,Timmins,Canada

Monday night

Utah st -14

Nuggets over 220



-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

Location:Access Rd,Des Plaines,United States