Wednesday, March 3, 2010

What does it mean to be sharp?

Linemakers aren't trying to predict the outcome of a game. They are trying to limit liability. What is their preferred method? They come out with a number that splits the action 50/50. Obviously, the action is tilted to one side on most games. Does that mean that being "sharp" means going against the "public" or "square" play? Hardly. Being sharp means setting your own line before you see what the oddsmakers release and to the degree that their is disparity between your number and theirs, there is value.

We won't win them all and we don't really have favorite teams. Our goal is to find soft numbers and make them pay. Some lines are too accurate to play regardless of how "marquee" the game might be. Other obscure games, like tenn st vs SeMo present real value and because there isn't much action on obscure games, books know they won't get crushed - hence they are more prone to set soft lines. Ohio st and Penn st is a talent mismatch. But so is tenn st and semo. We study hard to find that value, then pound it, hopefully you do so along with us.

Sharp means value. Sharp doesn't mean fading the public to look sharp because often the public is right. Sharp doesn't mean falling in love with a team and betting them to cover on the road without doing any analysis. Sharp means knowing you aren't married to any play until you make it. Then the work is done and you are watching like an invested spectator. If you believe in our work and/or your own, you won't doubt the long term results in the face of a few bad beats.

Rock on. And good luck tonight.

-posted from the sharpbettor's iPhone

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